Anticipation

I used to say that my father was the only man I knew who would slow down when he saw a green light. I put that complaint down, now, to late adolescent irritability, and the tedium of our slow daily commute from Windsor to London in the early 1980s, my father driving, with exemplary patience, through traffic jams and endless traffic lights. I remember a friend of mine – a driver, unlike me – pointing out that it makes very good sense to slow down. If the light’s green now, he said, it will very soon change to red. Better to be prepared.

Sadly, as we grow older, we become ever more aware of aftermaths. Anticipation stretches beyond the high point, to include the waning as well as the waxing of things. For the optimist, perhaps, the other way round as well, the waxing as well as the waning.

So I’ve come to dread the 21st of June, Midsummer’s Day. I know it should be a day for celebration, and I do my best to enjoy it, but I can’t help thinking it’s the start of another decline, as the days begin to shorten from the 22nd. Although the 21st of December is, by the same token, the beginning of better things, gradual loss is much harder to endure than gradual gain is to enjoy.

Weddings depress me, too. There’s so much hope. I can’t help thinking of them as unrealistically optimistic, full of fragile joy, to be followed by the inevitable decline into bickering and divorce. I can’t blot out anticipation and simply enjoy the moment.

(On the other hand, breaking with melancholy for a moment, I did enjoy my own, and I’m as optimistic as I was five years ago.)

blossom

leaves

The trees are coming into leaf in Prague, though the air is still cool and the sun isn’t shining warmly. Spring is the loveliest time of year, my favourite season, perhaps all the more so because I know the lights will soon turn red again, and, with any luck, green again, eventually.

Walking home from the metro I was reminded of Philip Larkin’s almost optimistic poem:

The Trees

The trees are coming into leaf
Like something almost being said;
The recent buds relax and spread,
Their greenness is a kind of grief.

Is it that they are born again
And we grow old? No, they die too.
Their yearly trick of looking new
Is written down in rings of grain.

Yet still the unresting castles thresh
In fullgrown thickness every May.
Last year is dead, they seem to say,
Begin afresh, afresh, afresh.

A Tale of Two Systems

My family doesn’t like to bother the doctor. We behave as if seeing patients is the last thing a doctor would want to do (which perhaps it often is), not actually his job or his duty. Even when we lived next door to our GP in a small Wiltshire village in the 1970s my mother was loth to trouble him, with the consequence that my then 15-year-old brother nearly died of a ruptured appendix. It got to the point where he began to have out-of-body experiences (he could probably have visited the doctor astrally whilst the doctor was having his breakfast just fifty yards away) before, with some reluctance, the doctor was called, followed in short succession by the emergency services. Fortunately, he survived.

These self-denying notions were reinforced by a style of schooling that regarded sickness as a moral failure. You just had to get on with things, come what may. You played cricket, or swam, whatever the weather, as long as you could stand. With sufficient stoicism you might even survive death.

Whether I’ve inherited the feeling or acquired it, I’m still reluctant to visit the doctor unless I’m almost at the point of physical collapse.

emergency

Over the last two years I’ve twice been near this point, first during a business trip to Atlanta, and second, just two weeks ago in London – sinusitis (painful but hardly life threatening) in the first case, and a very bad cough (imagine the last act of La Traviata) in the second. I had a flight to catch in Atlanta, and Christmas to get through in the UK, both daunting and arduous experiences requiring considerable mental and physical strength.

What do you do when you’re sick in a foreign land? Although I’m British I’ve lived for nearly thirty years in Central Europe and am no longer familiar with the way the National Health Service (NHS) works, nor eligible to use its services. And on whose mercy do you throw yourself in the United States?

In Atlanta I was staying in a vast conference hotel, and on check-out morning I felt so incapable of boarding the London flight that I called down to Reception under the old-fashioned impression that the hotel might offer some sympathetic advice or even a ‘house doctor’. The hotel had more than a thousand rooms, surely enough to keep any doctor busy. Reception, however, was at a loss, indeed surprised to be troubled with my medical anxieties, but the nice lady at the end of the line wasn’t entirely unhelpful.

‘On a Sunday, the only thing you can actually do is to go to Emergency Admissions at Emerson Hospital.’

This seemed somewhat dramatic. Surely , if you can get to Emergency Admissions at a hospital on your own two feet, you don’t really belong there. I could certainly walk, and wasn’t visibly in need of first aid. If I were to appear un-stretchered at Emerson Hospital, wouldn’t I face scorn and contempt for wasting the time of busy doctors and nurses? They would surely be frantic, doing heroic things such as saving the lives of fat men having heart attacks. But I went.

The details aren’t all that interesting. The taxi actually took me to the wrong place – paediatric admissions – and I spent half an hour just filling out forms releasing this part of the hospital from the legal responsibility of letting me leave. And at the right place, after I’d seen a triage nurse in a reception area as elegant as a five-star hotel, I spent the first half hour trying to prove that I could pay for whatever treatment they had in mind for me (I had to give the name and address of my American colleague Barbara so that they had someone to chase in case my credit card payments bounced).

Then I saw a nurse and a doctor, received intravenous fluids, antibiotics, this and that, was patched up and sent to the airport. A doctor talked to me of his respect for our Queen. It took 90 minutes and cost a staggering 1,800 USD (which, very fortunately, my insurer paid without demur).

I wouldn’t call that a system fit for purpose – or not at least the purposes of a foreign visitor. It was difficult to find, expensive, bureaucratic and overly cautious.

Compare that with the NHS. When I’m in London I stay at a flat I call the Cave (it’s partially submerged and the low winter light of London doesn’t usually reach its inner spaces). There’s an NHS clinic around the corner, but they explained that they won’t see unregistered patients, neither stretchered nor un-stretchered. So, a short taxi ride away, I visited an Urgent Care Centre, which was part of a small hospital. An Urgent Care Centre isn’t as parochial as a Clinic but neither is it as dramatic as Emergency Admissions.

I explained to the nice man at Reception that I wasn’t in fact eligible for any kind of treatment and would gladly pay. He asked me my name, and to my huge astonishment he found me in the NHS database. I’m a database systems designer and I know how hard it must be to set up a nationwide database of around 60 million potential patients. My last contact with the NHS had been more than thirty years earlier, and yet they had collected me into their system from somewhere.

A triage nurse saw me immediately. Did I catch a glint of contempt in the way he looked at me? Twenty minutes later I was examined by a nurse practitioner. Clearly no need to waste the time of a doctor. The nurse, who was perfectly familiar with the third act of La Traviata, was sympathetic, but said there was nothing anyone could do about viral bronchitis.

So, you see, my school was right. You just have to get through these things. No wasteful prescriptions of precautionary antibiotics, either.

‘And don’t bother with cough syrups, they’re a complete waste of time,’ he said.

And there was nothing to pay.

‘If your HNS number comes up in the system,’ the Receptionist said as I offered him money, ‘then you don’t have to pay.’

The NHS is impressively fit for purpose. I was astonished by its IT systems, its efficiency, its honesty and realism. It must surely fail from time to time, but what human institution doesn’t? When I compare this London experience with the Atlanta one, I’m in no doubt about where I’d rather be ill

Making Sense of Airline Pricing

I travelled to Toronto via London ten days ago, flying business class on British Airways. Fortunately, I wasn’t paying, and neither was my company. The client, unusually, was willing to pick up the bill.

tickets air

When searching on http://www.ba.com I noticed that a ticket from Prague cost less than half the cost of a ticket from London to Toronto and back. Four flights instead of two flights, but less than half the price. Now, I’m not naïve enough to think that it’s only distance that determines price, but I was still astonished at the difference. Revenue management is a fine art, and I suspect that all manner of factors come into play, demand being the main one, but whatever algorithm balances the profitability of expected sales from London against the profitability of expected sales from Prague must be a complicated one. How to decide whether to reduce the London price slightly to stimulate demand from London as opposed stimulating less profitable demand from Prague?

Certainly, if I had the time and needed the comfort, and was based in London, I’d be more than happy to add a comfortable day or two in Prague at both ends of a trip to Toronto, even if it meant flying through London both ways. I’d be saving a substantial amount of money.

So, what determines price? I can’t work it out. It’s a black box, the contents of which are known only to the revenue managers at British Airways. I had a look at business class flights to New York leaving on 18th and returning on 25th of November (converting prices into GBP, and showing % against London price):

PRG  LHR  JFK  LHR  PRG     2010      58%

LHR  JFK  LHR                         3472     100%

CDG  LHR  JFK  LHR  CDG     1854     53%

SOF  LHR  JFK  LHR   SOF     1794     52%

DME  LHR  JFK  LHR  DME      1769     51%

The distance between London and New York is 3459 miles,

And for Toronto they are these:

PRG  YYZ  JFK  YYZ  PRG      2130      40%

LHR  YYZ  LHR                         5277     100%

CDG  YYZ  JFK  YYZ  CDG     2383     45%

SOF  YYZ  JFK  YYZ   SOF     1978     37%

DME  YYZ  JFK  YYZ  DME      2595     49%

The distance between London and Toronto is 3547 miles,

Now these are snapshots on a particular day, so I’m not sure that these would be the cheapest prices you could ever pay for these routes, but one can at least conclude the following:

  • The cost of flying from London to Toronto is disproportionately more than the price of flying from London to New York. The distance is only slightly greater. Competition on the London to New York route, I suppose, is greater.
  • But if you’re flying to Toronto from continental Europe you’ll pay around 45% of the London-Toronto price, presumably because there’s greater competition on the indirect routes. But you’re still paying disproportionately more than the difference in distance would suggest.
  • If you’re flying to New York from continental Europe you’ll pay around 55% of the London-New York price.

You can’t, of course, buy an indirect route and board from London. But if you’ve got time, then spend a night in continental Europe before your transatlantic trip, but think twice before choosing Moscow.